The cost of war in Iraq
I've seen articles on the value of human life from an actuarial and statistical point of view. Most people value their lives at $7-$10 million. The U.S. uses about 18 million barrels of oil a day. If you are able to decrease the price of oil by $1/barrel, it's worth (in statistical terms) about two lives per day -- less, if you figure the cost of transportation, training, and equipment.
Now, if you figure $200 billion dollars and 1500 lives (taking the higher $10 million price tag per life), this works out to the equivalent of $215 billion (or conversely, the equivalent of 21,500 lives) over two years. If we take current oil prices of $53/barrel (total around $700 billion over two years), then we should expect oil prices to be about 30% lower than they would be otherwise. Somehow, I don't think they are.